Bowling Green

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	193.0
Current RPI:	193
Expected SOS:	188
Current SOS:	188
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-5
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	166
Expected OOC SOS:	296

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	193.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bowling Green.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	69-78	W	100%
11-13	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	79-88	L	0%
11-18	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	H	83-80	W	100%
11-24	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	N	83-74	W	100%
11-25	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	72-78	W	100%
11-26	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	N	88-83	L	0%
11-29	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	85-79	W	100%
12-2	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	A	77-92	W	100%
12-5	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	76-91	L	0%
12-9	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	88-46	L	0%
12-21	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	78-81	W	100%
1-2	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	72-77	L	0%
1-6	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	A	71-75	W	100%
1-9	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	66-57	W	100%
1-13	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	80-78	L	0%
1-16	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	70-81	W	100%
1-20	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	H	75-84	L	0%
1-23	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	93-62	L	0%
1-27	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	101-75	L	0%
1-30	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	66-50	W	100%
2-3	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	H	70-62	W	100%
2-6	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	59-56	L	0%
2-10	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	70-63	W	100%
2-13	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	H	83-81	W	100%
2-16	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	95-82	L	0%
2-20	Akron (227.0)	MAC	H	79-81	L	0%
2-24	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	64-63	L	0%
2-27	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	75-59	L	0%
3-2	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	H	70-100	L	0%
3-5	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	81-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bowling Green's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Bowling Green's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Bowling Green.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Bowling Green	MAC	26.25	26.25	47.89	47.89	-1.11	-1.11
Kent St.	MAC	4.25	4.25	48.39	48.39	-0.14	-0.14
Buffalo	MAC	4.22	4.22	74.19	74.19	2.04	2.04
Miami OH	MAC	4.17	4.17	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
Akron	MAC	4.14	4.14	37.93	37.93	-1.00	-1.00
Central Michigan	MAC	4.14	4.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	4.13	4.13	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.11	4.11	62.96	62.96	1.07	1.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	4.11	4.11	35.71	35.71	-1.17	-1.17
Toledo	MAC	2.65	2.65	65.62	65.62	0.83	0.83
Western Michigan	MAC	2.53	2.53	51.72	51.72	0.09	0.09
Ball St.	MAC	2.53	2.53	56.67	56.67	0.34	0.34
USC Upstate	ASun	1.81	1.81	11.11	11.11	-1.41	-1.41
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.76	1.76	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.74	1.74	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Campbell	BSth	1.73	1.73	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Abilene Christian	Slnd	1.73	1.73	42.31	42.31	-0.27	-0.27
Green Bay	Horz	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
South Dakota	Sum	1.70	1.70	72.41	72.41	0.76	0.76
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.69	1.69	77.42	77.42	0.93	0.93
San Jose St.	MWC	1.69	1.69	10.71	10.71	-1.33	-1.33
Drexel	CAA	1.67	1.67	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Evansville	MVC	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Oakland	Horz	0.22	0.22	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	32.35	32.35	-0.08	-0.08
Wright St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Lipscomb	ASun	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.08	0.08
Indiana St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
NJIT	ASun	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Denver	Sum	0.17	0.17	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.13	0.13	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00